February 28, 2021

COVID-19 and ‘bouncing forward’ strategies for Cameroon’s Food Sector

 *This is part of our series on the nexus between COVID-19 and food systems.

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic continues to unfold, exposing the vulnerable nature of different businesses. However, how we learn, adapt or transform our ‘usual’ operations and management regimes are critical for a resilient and sustainable recovery. The Republic of Cameroon is a Central African nation with a current population of about 26 million people and a projected GDP of US$ 44.4 billion in 2025. More than 60% of Cameroonians are employed and engaged in the primary and secondary sectors of the economy, dominated by agricultural activities, petit traders, and also processing and manufacturing of "light consumer goods and textiles." These sectors play an essential role in their contribution to GDP, employment, and livelihoods for Cameroonians. Small businesses like restaurants and open-air food vendors are an integral part of Cameroon’s economy. They sell different food such as ‘puff puff’ and beans, roasted fish, roasted beef (suya), roasted pork, shawarma, cowpea (koki), cornflour and vegetables (kati-kati), and eru (Gnetum africanum), to name a few. However, with the emergence of COVID-19, many of these restaurants closed down, affecting the food supply chain and a significant 70% drop in food prices since suppliers had no other market options. Thus, developing strategies that build resilience and adaptive capacity for those engaged in the food sector to existing stresses and future shocks is quintessential. 

 

How the food sector operates in Cameroon

 

Like many other middle-and-low income countries, Cameroon’s food sector is underdeveloped in terms of physical and cyber infrastructures, digitalization and the lack of financial sources for small business incubation and entrepreneurship. Aside from the few fancy and expensive restaurants (those selling food for at least US $2) in large cities, most cooked food is sold along roadsides and at open-air markets. Smallholder farmers sell their livestock, poultry and fruit and vegetables directly to food sellers and individuals or, at times, using the services of  wholesale buyers who transport the produce to other cities. With such a simple and linear food supply chain, any disruption affects everyone involved, from producer to consumer. For example, a forthcoming study led by the author shows that there is a wide gap in the supply and demand for fish in Cameroon and an increase in fish price due to the pandemic. The principal challenge for food sellers and those engaged in the food chain is poor delivery and food supply services and the reliance on face-to-face financial and physical transactions. Such a system is vulnerable to systemic shocks like COVID-19, where health protocols like lockdowns are recommended. Thus, there is a need for innovation and the development of strategies that are resilient and robust to these kinds of disruptions.

  

 

An open-air shawarma spot in Buea, Cameroon


The Bouncing Forward Ideology

Embedded in resilience, the bouncing forward concept is important in how we design response strategies to emerging shocks while thinking about the future in different scenarios, including COVID-19. Bouncing forward involves the different ways we evaluate our current adaptive capacity to make amendments and better prepare for future shocks. Learning and developing our capabilities, capacity and evolving are key aspects influencing agency and varying response decisions. With governments and society responding to the systemic shocks of COVID-19, there is a need for deliberate changes and innovation to many aspects of society, especially those that directly affect or address societal problems through social innovation. However, common rhetoric in society is the idea of 'bouncing back,' i.e., maintaining the same status quo and response strategies that seek to enhance pre-existing management regimes. With instabilities in the global economy, adapting to the same mode of operations will increase vulnerability to businesses and a direct impact on employment and sustainable livelihoods. Therefore, there is a need and emphasis on 'bouncing forward abilities' that can ensure better resilience, robustness, and society's sustainability.

 

 

Innovation and Way Forward

 

The high levels of postharvest food losses in Africa and Cameroon, in particular, could be attributed to poor food delivery systems and networks, especially for fresh produce. With disruptions from COVID-19 health measures to the supply chain, lockdowns, and restaurant closures, there are no efficient systems in which producers can supply their products directly to consumers. Creating a system that facilitates the supply of food to consumers' doorsteps can solve some of these problems. For example, while fishers could supply fish directly to customers through different online platforms in North America, such systems are absent in Cameroon. In this modern era, online food delivery services such as Uber Eats, Skip the Dishes, or coordinated direct delivery of food by restaurants to an individual’s home are becoming essential in the food business. There is a need for innovations and investments in online and physical resources to facilitate communications between suppliers, food sellers and consumers. Nevertheless, the idea of online food order and delivery is beginning to grow in Cameroon, with some restaurants providing options for takeaway or home delivery.

 

One example of how capacity can be built to support bounce-forward transformations in Cameroonian food systems is online food delivery services, which rely on good internet connectivity and an organized home address system for timely and efficient food delivery. Such a delivery system also involves developing a culture of food ordering which is currently lacking in Cameroon. Despite these challenges, few steps can be taken to ensure a coordinated food supply chain. With increasing access to mobile phones and internet services, participants within a particular food supply chain can exchange phone numbers and home addresses. Here, through arranged transport means, producers can coordinate the supply of their products to homes and restaurants without any physical contact. This will also involve changes in the financial transaction through the use of services like mobile money, which is becoming a  popular money transfer and banking service in Cameroon. 

 

In conclusion, instituting bouncing forward strategies helps build resilience for vulnerable food systems. For Cameroon’s food sector, bounce-forward transformation such as investments in food delivery services through a coordinated communication and money transfer system between producers, food sellers and consumers are important strategies for recovery and preparedness for future shocks. The digitalization of the food supply chain will need developing various networks, collaboration, and exchange of information between participants, and the availability of financial support for such transformation. Digital innovation for Cameroon's food sector is critical for its sustainability and adaptive capacity.

 

 

Richard Nyiawung

PhD Candidate

Geography, Environment & Geomatics

University of Guelph

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February 21, 2021

The Left Behind: Uncertainties of COVID-19 in Kakuma Refugee Camp

 

*This is part of our series on the nexus between COVID-19 and food systems.

While the rest of us around the world are advised to wear masks, wash hands and stay indoors to curb the spread of COVID-19, those who reside in war tone countries and especially those in refugee camps, have a different story to tell. They often do not have these options as access to running water for example is a challenge for them. Kakuma refugee camp, one of the largest in East Africa, is one of the areas hit really hard by the pandemic.


Shared water tap at Kakuma III block 12

Kakuma which means “nowhere” in Swahili- was established in 1991, in North Western Kenya, bordering South Sudan, Ethiopia and Uganda. During the early stages of inception, Kakuma Refugee Camp was designed to accommodate South Sudanese refugees fleeing violence and conflict from Sudan. Over the years, the camp has become a home of over 190,000 refugees and asylum seekers from different nationalities[1]. According to the UNHCR facts sheet, Kakuma hosts about 21% of the refugee population in Kenya.

 

The camp is administered by United Nation High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) and fall under Kenyan government jurisdiction. Individuals in the camp are controlled by the Kenyan government through the Department of Refugees Affairs (DRA), which was adopted in 2006 under the refugees' act[2]. Refugees are restricted to staying in the camp unless permitted to travel to other parts of the country by the camp manager -which is an arduous process. Having spent most of my childhood in Kakuma, I recall the process of getting a travelling document for going back to school in Nairobi taking more than three weeks. It really was, and I think it still is a tedious process to want to get out of the camp, for whichever reason, be it medical or school.

 

There is only so much one can do in a semi-arid region such as Kakuma. Access to economic resources is very limited. An average temperature of 40 degrees Celsius on a daily basis is not a good condition for agricultural progress. Local retailers have to buy agricultural products from other parts of the country and resell them at local markets. Otherwise, a majority, if not all, depend on food distributed by the World Food Program (WFP) in partnership with UNHCR. Considering the environmental condition of this camp, water is another scarce resource. One communal tap being shared by more than 150 households. And on top of that, the taps only run twice a day early morning and evening, for about one hour. If one finds themselves towards the end of the queue, they will end up with no water for a few days. Water, one of the basic human needs is not that basic in place like Kakuma. In addition to these poor environmental conditions, the legal constraints faced by refugees in the refugee camp have prevented them from accessing livelihood opportunities and becoming self-sufficient. Unlike urban refugees who can apply for “Class M” work permit, those in Kakuma are not able to apply for work permits or at least work in neighbouring areas. If travelling outside the camp in itself is hectic, finding a job is therefore close to impossible!

 

Residents lining up food distribution in Kakuma II distribution Center without masks.

In January 2021, I decided to get in touch with some of my friends and family members in the camp who acknowledge my questions about the living conditions in Kakuma during this pandemic. I can only imagine how bad it can get. The air is filled with sadness, fear and uncertainty. With the outbreak of COVID-19, the distress is particularly alarming among refugees, as they feel isolated and disconnected from the rest of the country. With restrictions put in place by the government of Kenya and the UNHCR, refugees are in a limbo, finding it difficult to navigate this global health crisis. Several government services dedicated to asylum seekers and refugees have been suspended. This includes welcoming of new refugees, registration process and even resettlement programs. The Refugee Affairs Secretariat (RAS) has suspended all their activities in Nairobi and Kakuma refugee camps. UNHCR Kakuma has passed information to refugees’ communities through a public information system managed by Film Aid International. Refugees are restricted from leaving the camp, with strict measures put in place for anyone who goes against the ‘law’. An example is a caveat that anyone who leaves the camp amid the pandemic will be arrested and UNHCR will not take any responsibility[3]. Besides, UNHCR is not responsible for anyone who tests positive for COVID-19 outside the camp. Prior to the pandemic, the population was already facing a range of challenges: barriers to economic inclusion, poor living conditions, high level of malnutrition, under-resourced healthcare and not so well-trained medical staff, had already left refugees vulnerable to the pandemic.

 

“I’m really worried about my children,” said Joyce a mother of two from Congo, have resided in the camp for seven years now. “If the disease gets here, there will be high mortality. We are facing a lot of challenges already as refugees. We don’t have enough food, water and there are all sort of diseases here”.

 

People in Kakuma rely on minimal food ration aid provided by the World Food Program (WFP) twice a month. The food is distributed in small portions of maize, sorghum, oil and lentils and an additional $1 per person in the form of cash transfer. With the shortage of funds, the World Food Program has reduced the amount of food given to refugees in both Kakuma and Dadaab by 30%[4].This has made food insufficient in camps forcing many refugees to take credits from local retail outlets.  The number of collectors at food distribution centres has reduced by more than 50 percent because of the pandemic.  With the help of World Vision Kenya, temporary taps have been installed at distribution centres and people are encouraged to practice social distancing as they queue in the line to wait for food to be distributed.

 

Kakuma III marketplace. Little Halima on the right helping mother sell murere (Jute plant)

“Even with restriction in place, there is still a lot of crowding at distribution centres, people don’t bother wearing masks, because they lack awareness about the dangers of the virus,” said Gatwech a South Sudanese refugee. “We don’t have a lot of information about this disease. Only the block leaders understand what is going on. We don’t have televisions or radios to get any updates about the virus”, he added.

Most people in Kakuma do not have enough information about COVID-19. As I mentioned earlier, the means of communication like radios or Televisions are not common, there is no electricity. Even if one is fully aware of the dangers of COVID-19 one still needs to fetch that water, stand in line to get food, share one compound with your neighbours, share a room with four or five other individuals, share utensils or rather eat in one plate, share latrines and so forth. Hospitals are understaffed, protection kits are not enough for healthcare workers and no distance measures put in place due to overcrowded space. The spread of the virus is almost impossible to prevent. Health care providers such as the International Rescue Committee (IRC) and Africa Inland Church (AIC) in Kakuma are trying their best to prevent the spread of the virus but the gap is somewhat too wide to be bridged, leaving everyone in the camp vulnerable to acquiring the disease.

COVID-19 has also taken a toll on small businesses in the Kakuma Refugee camp. Curfews have been put in place where everyone has to be home by 7:00 pm. The police roam around and if anyone is found on the street they are arrested and fined ksh.20000. All shops are expected to close by 7:00 pm. This is a disadvantage to businesses whose operators believes the best time to sell is from 7:00 pm to 10:00 pm. Roadside businesses are banned but there are still people doing this illegally because it is the only way they can make a living[5].

“I know it’s not halal to be selling here but I don’t have a choice. I need to make extra money so that I can buy food” said mama Halima, a roadside seller. We are told to wear a mask, wash hands, we don't even have sinks or money to buy these masks, she added".

The economic consequences of the pandemic are expected to be dire in Kakuma refugee camp. Though UNHCR and its partners are working towards solutions to help refugees recuperate from the pandemic, the low average level of pre-existing living conditions will make it even harder for them to recover.

                                                            References

Inside the World's 10 Largest Refugee Camps.(2012)  UNHCR: Retrieved from https://www.arcgis.com/apps/MapJournal/index.html?appid=8ff1d1534e8c41adb5c04ab435b7974b

 

WFP Cuts Food Rations for Refugees in Kenya Amidst Funding Shortfalls (2017)

Retrieved from: https://www.wfp.org/news/wfp-cuts-food-rations-refugees-kenya-amidst-funding-shortfalls

 

Forsen., Y. & Guyatt., H (2016). Refugee Household Vulnerability Study: Kakuma Refugee Camp.    Retrieved from:

https://cdn.wfp.org/wfp.org/publications/Refugee%20HH%20Vulnerability%20Study_Kakuma%20Refugee%20Camp_%202016%2005%2006.pdf

 

Chudolinska, H., (2012).  Kakuma: Peaceful coexistence among 13 nationalities away from home.

https://ec.europa.eu/echo/field-blogs/stories/kakuma-peaceful-coexistence-among-13-nationalities-away-home_en#:~:text=The%20camp's%20most%20important%20achievement,might%20fight%20against%20each%20other

 

Kakuma Refugee Camp and Kalobeyei Settlement, Kenya (2020): The UN Refugee Agency.

Retrieved from

https://www.unhcr.org/ke/wpcontent/uploads/sites/2/2021/02/Kakuma_December-2020_Operational-Updates.pdf

 

Nyadual Makuach

Criminology and Computer Science Program

Undergraduate Research Assistant, ECVOntario

University of Guelph



[2] Kakuma Refugee Camp and Kalobeyei Settlement (2020).

https://www.unhcr.org/ke/wpcontent/uploads/sites/2/2021/02/Kakuma_December-2020_Operational-Updates.pdf

 [3] Information retrieved from residents in Kakuma refugee camp (2021)

 [4] WFP Cuts Food Rations for Refugees in Kenya Amidst Funding Shortfalls (2017)

[5] Information was collected from a resident in Kakuma (2020)

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January 18, 2021

COVID-19 and Randomness: How the Pandemic has Deepened Inequality in Uganda

 

*This is part of our series on the nexus between COVID-19 and food systems.

The on-set of COVID-19 has had dire consequences with the control measures put in place severely impacting the economy and livelihood of a predominantly agricultural Uganda.  Agriculture and all related activities were put to a halt with almost 3 million feared to fall into deeper poverty (World Bank, 2020). The sudden and unexpected disruptions caused by the lockdown, travel restrictions and curfew left the frail and venerable economy, at the verge of collapsing, with the resilience of the economy to adapt and bounce back from these unexpected pressures put to the test of time.

The lockdown saw a positive response with people complying with the regulations; however, the hasty implementation of the lockdown left many loose ends;

·       Loss of employment for many small business owners and employees.

·       An abrupt cut on source of income and livelihood for many wage earners.

·       A stop to public transportation devoid of any alternatives for essential workers and those going to hospital.

·       A lack of provision for a source or supply of groceries and essential commodities.

The start of COVID 19 was well managed as people heeded to the stay home regulations, with a manageable impact on the economy. However, the strain of the prolonged lockdown was eventually a greater reality to the country considered mildly affected. The politically charged country, preparing for an election saw political leaders take advantage of the situation as they inculcated doubt, fear and distrust to their advantage.  Propaganda about the virus being a political makeup stirred commotion and skepticism.  With a desperate population and an ill planned and hasty lockdown, a recipe for disaster loomed and a heightened threat for the imminent danger of COVID 19. The immediate and significant effect was first felt in the food sector due to a disruption in the food supply chain as the travel ban took effect.  While many people scrambled to stock food supplies, toilet paper, sanitizer and vitamins, Ugandans tousled with the fear of where tomorrow’s food would come from. 

 

In Canada, the COVID 19 response plan was instituted to support individuals, businesses, and sectors affected by COVID 19. Measures in place included insurance benefits, recovery benefits, recovery sickness benefits, recovery care-giving benefits and mortgage payment deferral. This was done to ensure people stayed home, contained the spread of the virus and would be able to recover after the impact.

Uganda’s government, on the other hand, was a beneficiary of the World Bank COVID 19 recovery support, meant to protect the most vulnerable, and support economic recovery. This included supporting farmers’ access to agricultural inputs to enable increased production thus boosting nutrition and food security.  The recovery program also supported the senior citizens and those considered in utmost need.  The beneficiaries of the program received food stamps, maize flour and beans.

 

The food stamp distribution was problematic as the quality of the food was very poor due to poor post harvest handling. There was also a general outcry of the lack of options, as everyone was expected to consume maize flour and beans. In addition, many in rural areas were not considered for the food stamps as it was assumed the rural communities were food secure. Faced with the uncertainty, low income earners struggled for basic commodities, while members of the middle class hoarded food, causing a food scarcity and sending food prices escalating. Though those in the urban areas would not afford or access the food, the rural folks would not get their produce to the markets. Food scarcity was rampant in the cities causing inflation in food prices while in the rural areas food went to waste leaving farmers struggling to make ends meet without an income; livelihood had been cut off as they depend on the food sold.

 

The immediate food shortage and exorbitant food prices yet registered losses in other parts of the country are an example of an inherent inequality within Uganda’s policy implementation framework.  Although suitable policies have been set to boost agricultural production, the economy continues to struggle with many under fed, poorly nourished and struggling for market accessibility.

 

Taking an example, the government has instituted a surveillance policy to ensure timely and relevant information is maintained in order to guarantee calamities are contained. Analysing this policy in the light of COVD 19 apparently indicates the government’s inadequate preparation for the outbreak as well as poor implementation. The quantity of the food was inadequate and the distribution biased, leaving many starving families not provided for.  As well the food quality was poor and considered unfit for human consumption.  Not only was the implementation framework lacking, the coordination and distribution was deficient.  The well intended policies left many hungry, with others wondering whether the government had a safety net in place.

 

Uganda’s favorable weather and rainfall pattern has always ensured a good harvest in many parts.  Although, some parts of the country experience below average food production, well planned and coordinated post harvest handling and distribution should ensure a food sufficient country. However, the country has chronically registered high levels of malnutrition and hunger with households unable to provide a sustainable food supply. At the same time, equally high food waste continues to affect the agricultural system. This is a result of poor processing and storage techniques, as well as poor transportation to markets. The arrival of COVID-19 made the situation worse as it unveiled an already existing weak link in the fragile system, as well as exposed the government’s lack of consideration of cultural diversity and food sovereignty in addressing food security. Uganda is a country with diverse foods, apart from maize and beans, healthy and culturally acceptable crops like millet, sorghum, peas, groundnuts, sim sim (sesame) are grown and consumed. 

 

Although maize is grown and eaten in Uganda, millet is more widely accepted culturally in Northern, North- East, Eastern and Western regions. Millet is a highly nutritious cereal containing the highest calcium compared to other cereals as well as special amino acids namely, tryptophan, cystine, methionine and total amino acids limited in many other cereals.  Because of its iron content; millet porridge is popularly fed to nursing mothers in Uganda. Millet is grown for food, as a source of income and is traditionally processed into a local brew.  Millet bread and the local brew are important ceremonial victuals, making millet a culturally, religious and traditionally valuable crop. Its resilience, drought tolerance, extended shelf life and limited pests makes it a suitable crop for food security. Even with its qualities, millet has received limited promotion with more emphasis on maize, bananas and cassava. Additionally, introduction of subsidized foods like rice in the urban centers has further outcompeted millet.

 

Millet bread served in Endiiro: Western Uganda

Millet is one of the oldest indigenous crops in Uganda however, it has received limited devotion to improving its production, utilization, processing, storage or even marketing.  On the contrary, growing of bananas, cassava, sweet potatoes and maize have been promoted through the dedicated national programs at major research stations at Namulonge and Kawanda as well as international funding. As a researcher at Kawanda and Namulonge research centers working with the International Institute for Tropical Agriculture (IITA), we researched improved varieties (high yielding, pest and drought resistant), post-harvest handling and utilization methods for bananas, yam, and cassava. New banana breeds, cassava, sweet potatoes and maize varieties were developed and distributed. However, limited research on millet was done and only in Serere, a smaller, less financially supported center in Eastern Uganda. While there is value for variety, food sovereignty cannot be ignored in the fight against food insecurity.

 

Although, Uganda prides itself in food diversity and sufficiency, with a wide range of staple foods, food insecurity in Uganda is an intricate problem resulting from a dependency on policies developed without concrete research and well documented data. The necessity of research on and promotion of indigenous crops and their values cannot be overstated.  More research on crops like millet, sorghum, peas and groundnuts should be advanced. The research advancements should then be a guide in policy development and implementation, with a deliberate effort to implement local research findings. Therefore, researchers, end-users and policy makers should work together to enforce implementation and influence change. There is a disconnect between researchers, end-users and policy makers.  Working with the African Institute for Capacity Development (AICAD), one of the useful strategies we employed was a close collaboration between farmers, researchers, university scholars and policy makers to endeavour research findings were quickly and easily transferred. 

 

Apart from policy implementation, the dependency on donor funds has seen Uganda adopt and implement conditional foreign models that are not consistent with the cultural, political and social needs.  This has seen the continued growth of the less local crops like rice and wheat while neglecting indigenous crops. The success of a model should address the needs of the local communities and provide tailor made solutions that encourage suitable adaptation of technology and innovation among the community.

 

Uganda’s problem has been compounded by a lack of coordination, lack of appropriate information (marketing, rainfall, etc.), creativity, innovation (preservation methods) and digitalisation. Although Uganda is moving towards mobile technology, government commitment is still desired.  There is need to improve on the internet system to enable fast and easy access to reliable information across the value chain.  Mobile technology has promoted coordination, encouraged innovation and broken the barriers of poor infrastructure.

 

A critical analysis of the situation reveals the success of an early lockdown in Uganda’s effort to control the fast progress of COVID 19 with low numbers of reported cases in the first spike. However the progression of the lockdown measures in the midst of political rallies influenced how the disaster unraveled.  The political sentiments and propaganda sowed doubt; this coupled with lack of a proper system in place to support the desperate citizens triggered a negative response with people ignoring the calls for social distancing and staying home. You cannot lockdown a hungry person. Therefore, in order to address food security and preparedness, there is a need for longer-term and short-term strategies. Models derived from authentic research, depicting real problems, approaches and solutions that are realistic and involve persons affected.

 

There is need for a total overhaul on the implementation framework, research and systematic feedback process. There is also need to identify sectors, businesses, individual groups, persons and activities most affected and develop supportive measures accordingly.  The government needs to put in place a system that promotes information accessibility and innovation through increased use of digital technology. Finally, when it comes to people’s lives there is need to avoid divisive politics and emphasize unity.

 

COVID 19 has revealed Uganda’s continued struggle with policy implementation, lack of commitment and coordination among the implementers of the policies. The long term effects of the pandemic on the social and economic system are yet to be felt. Uganda, like most African countries was last to experience the attack by the pandemic, giving ample preparation time for the catastrophe yet when it eventually hit, Uganda was ill prepared. This predicament demonstrates the necessity for disaster preparedness, the importance of a systemic plan for reserve resources (redundancy) for times of the unexpected.

 

Reference:

World Bank Press Release, 2020. Uganda: World Bank Provides $300 Million to Close COVID 19 Financing Gap and Support Economy Recovery.  The World Bank Press Release, June 29, 2020.

 

Christine Kajumba Kaahwa

Food and Digitalization Expert

Guest Contributor

ECV Ontario

 

 

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December 8, 2020

COVID-19 and its Lingering Impact on US Food Systems

 *This is part of our series on the nexus between COVID-19 and food systems.

Truthfully, it’s been quite a life-defining and uncertain year 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has continually posed an unprecedentedly lingering impact on my eating habits as well as on the U.S. food and socioeconomic systems. It is pertinent to note that even before the pandemic, the small farms were disappearing, a few banks were being bailed out, small agribusinesses bankruptcy was rife, and U.S. - Chinese trade wars. The food systems are also evolving due to inherent systemic racism and police brutality. The inequality and randomness impact of food systems was certainly aggravated by the murder of George Floyd in the heat of COVID-I9 pandemic.

The pre-pandemic food supplies and increased trade integration contributed to geographic spread of agri-food supply chains in the U.S. Invariably, all food products including fresh groceries, bread, fruits, vegetables, poultry, beverages, processed foods, red meats, fish and other edible consumables were always available at the grocery stores – Wholefoods, Safeway, Food Lion, Target, Costco, Walmart, Harris Teeter, etc. However, the first month of the pandemic created acute shortage of food supplies in the shelves.

The pandemic crippled food ordering books for large and small groceries stores throughout the spring and summer, thereby creating supply delays or backlogs. At the start of the fall, groceries orders began trickling in again, but the damage is done and making most food supply chain players with revenues percentages losses compared to 2019 year’s levels. The pandemic shows that the food systems are neither risk averse nor shock-absorbing to the COVID-19 disruptions. By implication most of the food items such as groceries, sanitation items and water were not available in these stores in the beginning of the pandemic.

As an economist, my thoughts were how network models and other economics science tools could identify sources of food systems risks stimulated by the pandemic and provide workable policies to enhance antifragility, thereby appropriately preparing for the future of food supply risks in the U.S in particular and the United States Mexico and Canada (USMCA) trade space in general. The USMCA trade deal was robustly designed to achieve colossal success, especially from a food systems viewpoint. In the first three to five months of the pandemic, I was always at Costco Wholesale to purchase yummy dino buddies for the kids, and there were none. For many weeks running in summer until fall, there was shortage of yummy dino buddies. When the yummy dino buddies supplies finally arrived at Costco from Canada, a very strict rationing policy was implemented so that one could only purchase one packet per family and until now when you can purchase three packets per Costco card holders, bearing in mind that the pandemic made most workers stay home without income and the U.S. government also closed its borders to all its neighbors in order to stem the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic. In the absence of yummy dino buddies, it was really challenging for the kids to adapt to other food items such as tinned green peas and peanut butter.

Though the 2007/8 global ‘black swan’ was a trio food, fuel and financial crises, the fragility within the systems has not been reduced but instead it has been multiplied with people incurring higher debts with food, fuel and the financial crisis. In 2008, I was a regional agri-food policy analyst at the Forum for Agricultural Research in Africa (FARA) and the 2007/8 global food crisis was really critical. Today, the unsustainable solution to the global 3F crisis has aggravated the current impact of this pandemic such that the U.S food system is much more fragile than it was twelve years ago. By implication, the food and socio-economic systems have become less robust and shakier due to the pandemic. However, a few agri-food sub-sectors are better off but the whole food systems is not. For instance, the food e-commerce was better off, and as a prime member of Amazon, I embarked on online purchases for groceries from Whole Foods.

My family totally missed our community farmers’ market which provided us with fresh and organic foods. In 2019, we were looking forward to the Fall 2020 Farmers’ Market season at Archwood Green Barns, Warrenton, and Rappahannock Farmers Markets. Invariably, we also missed the family get together space for music and relaxation at the Warrenton Farmers’ Market (Please see our picture at the music section of the Warrenton Farmers’ Market).

Family relaxation spot at Warrenton Farmer's Market before COVID-19

The Liberty Community Church, its leadership and members provided the ecosystem to reflect on our spiritual and nutritional growth in the sense that its pantry section provides food items for community members. Thereafter, there are hot cups of coffee and tea with church members every Sunday morning as well as the mid-week services.

Given that children have been home without going to schools for about seven months and now are resuming virtual learning since Fall 2020, this has implications for household food and snacks consumption, expenditure, budgeting, and health outcomes. The increased consumption of snacks and continuous compliance with washing hands incessantly makes one intensely aware of how we forget to follow these precautions before eating snacks most times. In spite of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Virginia State Health and Human Services and Fauquier country public schools collaborative efforts to promote fresh fruits and vegetables consumption among kids through the Fauquier Reaches for Excellence in School Health (FRESH), unhealthy snacking behavior  is incongruent with the Dietary Guidelines for Americans DGAs 2020 – 2025 Agenda. Further, it is relevant to note the crucial role of the Fauquier Community Food Bank and Thrift Store in reducing the fragility of our community food systems during the pandemic.

At this juncture, food banking plays a great role in enhancing the capacities of food systems, as well as strengthening institutions towards eliminating hunger, food insecurity and malnutrition for the vulnerable population, especially in the emergency situations like this COVID-19 pandemic. According to Feeding America, a slow economic recovery and food supply chain challenges will exist throughout the year 2020. Most food banks that have been providing feeding and other nutrition needs experienced about 120 per cent increase in need, with a 45 per cent increase in new clients.

The COVID-19 pandemic and its inherent implications on fragile communities have rattled food systems experts to the point that they are looking beyond traditional solutions towards embracing innovative processes, approaches ideas, knowledge, and technologies. In response to these challenges, and in an attempt to reduce the randomness and disorders of the food and nutrition security policy space in the U.S., the No Hunger Food Bank and Systems Corporation (NHFBS) was established during the Summer 2020. NHFBS aims to deploy the most innovative technologies to enhance nutritional security among minority populations towards realizing the Dietary Guidelines for Americans (DGAs) Agenda in the U.S. In addition, a similar initiative, known as the No Hunger Food Bank Initiative (NHFBI) was formalized with the goal of eliminating hunger and realizing United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (UN SDGs) II for Africa.

Regardless of how the U.S. food systems have evolved during this pandemic, the ‘black swan’ outbreak has given all food systems stakeholders a reason to reevaluate how to make farmers’ markets and food supplies chains more innovative. In addition, this will make agri-food actors more prepared by identifying better ways to accomplish community shared food supply chain strategies which are well enabled with the systems not only in the US, but also all over the world.

Digital, medical (vaccines) and scientific approaches as well as social distancing and stay-at-home restrictions are being deployed to flatten the COVID-19 curve and decrease the rate of new cases. In spite of the containment policies being enforced by the U.S government to crush the virus, the number of infections has risen dramatically since the first week of March. In fact, the U.S has more confirmed cases and deaths than any other country worldwide. By implication, the food system is under great pressure towards making agri-food value chain actors evolve to become more antifragile. In response to the disruption wrecked on the U.S. food systems largely due to the unprecedented impacts of COVID-19 pandemic on the socioeconomic, the U.S. Government implemented the Coronavirus Aid, Relief and Economic Security (CARES) Act. The Act is the first national emergency program to reduce the adverse impacts of COVID-19 on Americans, including farmers, ranchers and the food systems. Although not entirely novel, and as a preparedness strategy for the future, it is crucial to reinvent the food systems policies and approaches towards making them more antifragile through increased consumer-centered and community driven food systems and by data driven insights. According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the U.S and global approach should not be to eliminate the virus but rather to de-multiply the spread of the pandemic. Optimistically, there has been encouraging news on vaccines discoveries and distribution, thereby shaping 2021 as a likely better year even if the food shortage and safety precautions that have been in place since March linger throughout the first half of the next year.


Gbadebo Odularu, PhD

Bay Atlantic University & Socio-Economic Research Applications and Projects (SERAP), Washington D.C

godularu@bau.edu; Gbadebo@serapllc.com


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